FOR those who advocate the electrification of the automobile, it has
been a good year. No fewer than eight significant plug-in models came to
market in the United States in 2012.
That’s progress, but even if the absolute number was modest, the heft of
the companies behind them could not be ignored: battery-electric and
plug-in hybrid cars arrived from
BMW
and Honda, while Ford and Toyota each released two. Tesla and Coda,
California-based electric specialists, offered sedans with starkly
different levels of appeal.
So it may be tempting to declare 2012 the year of the
electric car
— at least until you consider that many of these debuts were for
limited production runs of a couple of thousand vehicles. When the
year’s final sales figures are reported, cars with plugs will still
represent only about one-third of 1 percent of the new-car market.
Public charging stations continue to sprout in forward-thinking
communities, but there was little headway toward standardizing plugs for
the fast-charging systems that would help to neutralize public
resistance to E.V.’s.
Despite their small share of overall sales, plug-in cars seem to have
established a beachhead this year, regardless of the ups and downs
revealed in the year’s electric car headlines.
TESLA MODEL S In January, Franz von Holzhausen, design
chief at Tesla Motors, promised that the first car designed and produced
entirely by the start-up, the Model S, would not only be a good E.V.
but “the best sedan on the planet.”
At the time, auto reviewers mostly dismissed the words as more Silicon
Valley braggadocio. But once they drove the car, many who had been Tesla
doubters became E.V. believers. Automobile magazine and Motor Trend
each named the Model S its car of the year.
In my review of the Model S in these pages, I said the all-electric
luxury sport sedan was simultaneously stylish, efficient, roomy,
high-tech and very fast. Together with its Aston Martin handsomeness,
the performance of the newest Tesla overturned perceptions about
electric-car compromises. For example, the range of the 85-kilowatt-hour
model, which starts at $79,350 ($81,850 starting Jan. 1), is rated by
the E.P.A. at 265 miles per charge.
The company’s innovations in 2012 included the opening of a proprietary
rapid-charging network. Owners of appropriately equipped Model S sedans
will be able to make long trips using so-called supercharging stations
placed along routes connecting San Francisco, Lake Tahoe, Los Angeles
and Las Vegas — and Tesla provides the electricity free. The system goes
nationwide in 2013, starting along the Boston-to-Washington corridor.
Tesla says it will deliver about 2,500 Model S sedans this year; its
goal had been 5,000. The ambitious target for 2013 is 20,000 cars. The
Model S is an impressive achievement, bringing a measure of credibility
to Tesla’s plans for revolutionizing transportation in the 21st century.
NISSAN LEAF WILTS Tesla was not the only company that
failed to meet E.V. sales goals in 2012. Nissan struggled to find
customers for its all-electric Leaf compact. But even with tepid sales
in the first few months of the year, Carlos Ghosn, Nissan’s chief
executive and one of the auto industry’s most outspoken E.V. proponents,
stood firm: “I am not changing my bullish approach,” he told reporters
at the
New York auto show in April.
The company’s goal was to sell 20,000 Leafs in 2012, but through
November just 8,330 had left showrooms, a drop of 4.5 percent below the
year-earlier results. Discounted leases didn’t help, nor did reports
that Leaf owners in Arizona suffered a loss of battery capacity in the
blistering summer heat. In mid-November, Mr. Ghosn admitted that the
earlier sales targets would not be achieved.
PLUG-IN HYBRIDS RISE Contributing to the Nissan Leaf’s
disappointing sales was the car’s real-world range of about 80 miles on a
single charge.
The solution for a growing number of motorists who want to power
zero-emission cars with cheap electric fuel — but without the
constraints of today’s batteries — is the plug-in hybrid. Unlike the
Leaf, sales of the Chevy Volt and
Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid gained steadily as 2012 drew to a close.
These models — as well as the Ford C-Max Energi, Fisker Karma and the
coming Honda Accord Plug-in Hybrid — run on electricity for distances
ranging from 10 to 50 miles. For drivers with short commutes, these
plug-in hybrids can go months between visits to a gas station, yet
remain capable of long-distance travel when needed. Based on industry
forecasts and a growing number of available models, it’s logical to
conclude that plug-in hybrids will outsell pure E.V.’s in the United
States for years to come.
PRIUS GOES MAINSTREAM Toyota added a plug-in version to
its growing family of Prius hybrids in 2012. It also added the
extra-capacity Prius V wagon and the subcompact Prius C, rated at 53
m.p.g. in city driving. Prius is now the No. 1 selling line of cars in
California.
It took 15 years for the Prius to grow from an avant-garde experiment,
to a high-volume product line. In 2012, Toyota will sell more than one
million hybrids globally.
START-UPS RUN AGROUND There were other E.V. reality
checks in 2012. In October, Shai Agassi, the charismatic founder of
Better Place, a company formed to establish networks of E.V.
battery-swapping stations, stepped down from his chief executive role.
The California-based company had opened quick-swap stations in Israel
and Denmark, but is now reassessing its strategy.
Despite the shake-up, Better Place fared better than some electric car
start-ups. In January, Ener1, parent of the battery-maker EnerDel, filed
for bankruptcy. Two months later, Azure Dynamics, which assembled the
electric version of Ford’s Transit Connect delivery vehicles, filed for
Chapter 11. In October, A123 Systems, one of the most promising United
States battery companies and a supplier to Fisker (for the Karma) and
G.M. (for the Chevrolet Spark EV), went bankrupt.
54.5 M.P.G. Perhaps the biggest green car story of 2012
was the Obama administration’s new fuel economy standards. On Aug. 28,
rules were completed that established a standard of 54.5 miles per
gallon as an average of all light-duty cars and trucks by 2025,
essentially doubling
fuel efficiency
compared with today’s vehicles. That target also suggests that within a
generation hybrids will be ubiquitous and E.V.’s common, on American
roads.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: December 23, 2012
An
earlier version of this article misstated the share of the new-car
market in the United States that plug-in models were expected to reach
for 2012. It is about one-third of 1 percent, not two-thirds of one
percent.